Fed’s Miran turns hawkish, floats rethink of Fed Funds rate
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher.
The Fed’s most ardent dove, Stephen Miran, said he would reverse his December shift toward easier policy if he is still at the Federal Reserve by the March meeting, citing firmer labour data and renewed goods inflation.
“If I had no more data in hand right now and had to put a dot down at the March meeting, I would respond to the data again and probably end up moving my dot back to where it was in September,” Miran told The Peg in an interview on Wednesday, referring to the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the “dot plot”.
Miran lowered his end-2026 rate projection by 50 basis points between September and December, so reverting to his earlier estimate would amount to a hawkish shift.
The reason for the pivot, he said, is straightforward: “The labour market came in a little bit better than I came to expect over the last few months. There’s been some signs of even more firming in goods inflation.”
The comments come as FOMC minutes released on Wednesday revealed reduced appetite among policymakers for imminent rate cuts as well as discussions of the possibility of future hikes if inflation remains stubborn. This led markets to trim near-term easing bets, lifting the dollar and yields.
